Investors who love to bet on stocks may be tempted to start buying and selling in anticipation of the next presidential election.
But they are likely to miss the market’s long-term trends.
The best-known stock to own right now is United Technologies Corp. U.S. stocks are now up 2.7%, or $1.5 trillion, while the S&P 500 index has climbed 1.7% over the past 12 months, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.5%.
That means that if you own stocks now, you will gain about 3.5% in the coming years.
The biggest losers are stocks that have been struggling since the beginning of the year.
The Dow Jones industrial average has dropped almost 1,000 points in the past week, while Standard & Poor’s 500 index of smaller companies has fallen 5.3%.
If you buy stocks now and then sell them when the markets go down, you may be stuck with the same amount you invested in stocks in 2018, according to Brian Krebs, chief investment strategist at investment firm BlackRock.
If you don’t, your gains may be diluted, he said.
The U.K. government is expected to release its forecast of the country’s financial sector on Thursday.
A Bloomberg survey of economists and financial markets analysts indicates that the economy could grow 2.3% this year, the same as last year, according the consensus estimate from the International Monetary Fund.
The economy could also grow 3.4% this decade, the most since 2010, the survey of 38 economists from more than 50 countries showed.
“The outlook is bright for the U.N. and global economy,” said Neil Sheehan, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group.
“We are not expecting a global recession, but a slow-down.”
The outlook for the Federal Reserve is also optimistic, with a median forecast of a gradual easing, according a Bloomberg survey.
The stock market has risen 1.3%, or nearly $3 trillion, since the election, while U. S. stocks have gained about 8%.
The S&s 500 index is up 1%.
In a Bloomberg poll of economists, the Semiconductor Industry Association said it would like to see the Federal Open Market Committee raise interest rates by two percentage points next year, from its current range of 1.75% to 2%.
“We think that would be a nice starting point,” said James Loomis, senior economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
“That would give the Fed time to raise rates as soon as possible.”
The U, S. stock market was also down about 1.4%, or about $2.5 billion, last week.
“There are still a lot of factors in play in terms of whether we will see a stock market correction or not,” said Tim Pallas, a portfolio manager at Morningstar, a brokerage firm.
“It depends on what happens in Europe, whether the Federal reserve can pull out of its bond-buying program and put forward more stimulus and raise rates.”
He added that it is too early to say how much of the decline in the market can be attributed to the election.
The average price for stocks has fallen by about 10% since the end of October, when President Donald Trump won the election and the Dow closed above 1,200 for the first time in more than four years.
But the S &.;P 500 has fallen nearly 9% this week, with stocks trading at levels that would have been unheard of in a year or two ago.
It is now down more than 3% for the year, and more than 4% for 2017.
A slowdown in the global economy has been blamed for many of the stock gains, but investors are still taking their chances with stocks as the next president faces a slew of new challenges.
The International Monetary Bank is expected on Thursday to issue its first rate report since Trump took office, but it is not expected to offer much in the way of surprises.
The Fed is still holding interest rates near zero, but that may change after Trump signs a bill allowing the Fed to raise interest payments.
The central bank, which has raised rates three times since the 2008 financial crisis, has said it could keep rates at zero for as long as two years.